IGUANGZHOU, Okthobha. [XX] — Kangangamashumi eminyaka, i-"Made in China" ibingumqolo weshishini lezinto zokudlala kwihlabathi liphela, apho ilizwe lithatha ngaphezulu kwe-70% yezinto zokudlala ezithunyelwa ngaphandle kwihlabathi liphela. Kodwa namhlanje, kukho utshintsho olukhulu oluqhubekayo: uxinzelelo lwezopolitiko, ukunyuka kweendleko zemveliso, kunye neemfuno zokumelana nokuhanjiswa kwempahla ziqhuba amashishini ezinto zokudlala ukuba adlulele ngaphaya komzekelo omnye ogxile eTshayina ukuya "kwimveliso yehlabathi jikelele." IVietnam, iMexico, kunye nezinye iindawo zokuvelisa ezisakhulayo zivela njengeziseko zesibini eziphambili zemveliso, ngelixa iinkampani zijongene nobunzima bokulungelelanisa uthungelwano lokubonelela ngempahla kumazwe amaninzi. Idatha entsha yeshishini ibonisa ukuba ama-62% abathengisi bezinto zokudlala abaphambili baseTshayina baseke okanye baceba ukuseka iifektri zaphesheya ngo-2026, ukusuka kwi-38% ngo-2020, ngokutsho kwe-China Toy & Juvenile Products Association (CTJPA).
Abaqhubi boHlaziyo: I-Geopolitics kunye noxinzelelo lweendleko
Amandla amabini ahambelanayo akhawulezisa utshintsho lwekhonkco lokubonelela: iingozi eziqhubekayo zezopolitiko kunye noxinzelelo lweendleko olukhulayo eTshayina.
Kwicala lezopolitiko, ukungqubana kwezorhwebo phakathi kwezoqoqosho ezinkulu kuphazamise iindlela zemveli zokuthumela ngaphandle. I-US, eyona marike inkulu yezinto zokudlala ehlabathini, igcine iirhafu ezifikelela kwi-25% kwiindidi ezithile zezinto zokudlala zaseTshayina ukusukela ngo-2018, kungekho zimpawu zokubuyela umva kwangoko. "Ezi rhafu zinciphise inzuzo yethu nge-8-10% kwii-odolo ezibotshelelwe e-US," utshilo uWang Jian, umlawuli wecandelo lokubonelela kwi-Alpha Group eseShenzhen, inkampani ephambili kumenzi wezinto zokudlala kwihlabathi liphela. I-European Union ikwaqinise imithetho yokungenisa impahla, ifuna iziqinisekiso ezongezelelweyo zokuthobela imithetho yezinto zokudlala zaseTshayina, yandisa amaxesha okukhokela kunye neendleko zolawulo.
Uxinzelelo lweendleko eTshayina luye lwabangela utshintsho ngakumbi. Iindleko zomsebenzi eziphakathi kwiindawo zokwenza izinto zokudlala zaseTshayina—ezifana neGuangdong kunye neZhejiang—zinyuke nge-6.5% ngonyaka kwiminyaka emihlanu edlulileyo, zifikelela kwi-\(380-\)450 ngenyanga ngo-2025, ngokwedatha ye-CTJPA. Okwangoku, amaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza (kuquka ii-resin zeplastiki kunye nezinto ze-elektroniki) aguquguquka nge-12-18% ngonyaka ukusukela ngo-2022, ngenxa yokuphazamiseka kwekhonkco lokubonelela ngempahla kwihlabathi liphela. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, iindleko zomsebenzi kwiindawo zoshishino zaseVietnam zijikeleze kwi-\(200-\)280 ngenyanga, kwaye imivuzo yokuvelisa yaseMexico (\(300-\)350 ngenyanga) inika iingenelo zeendleko zokufikelela kwimarike yaseMntla Melika.
“Ukwabela abantu kwiindawo ezahlukeneyo akupheleli nje kwixabiso—kuxhomekeke ekusindeni,” ucacisa uLi Ming, i-CEO yeGuangzhou Auldey Toys, eyasungula umzi-mveliso waseVietnam ngo-2023. “Ukuba neziseko ezininzi zemveliso kusenza siphephe ukutsalwa kwerhafu kwaye sigcine imigca yokuhambisa ivuliwe ukuba ummandla omnye ujongene nokuphazamiseka, njengokuvalwa kweShanghai ngo-2022 okwalibazisa ukuthunyelwa kwethu kwempahla kangangeeveki ezintandathu.”
Iindawo Eziphambili: IVietnam neMexico Zikhokela Ulwakhiwo Lwesiseko Sesibini
IVietnam neMexico zivele njengezona ndawo zidumileyo zokwandisa amashishini ezinto zokudlala kwamanye amazwe, nganye inika izibonelelo ezikhethekileyo ezenzelwe iimarike ezahlukeneyo.
IVietnam: Indlu Enamandla Yokuvelisa KuMzantsi-mpuma weAsia
IVietnam ibe lolona khetho luphezulu lokusebenzela iimarike zaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia naseYurophu, ngenxa yendawo yayo ebalulekileyo, izivumelwano zorhwebo ezikhethekileyo, kunye nokukhula kwenkqubo yemizi-mveliso. Icandelo lokuvelisa amathoyizi kweli lizwe likhule nge-15% minyaka le ukusukela ngo-2020, kunye nokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kufikelela kwi-$3.2 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2024, ngokutsho kweOfisi yezibalo Jikelele yaseVietnam.
Iinkampani ezinkulu zokudlala zaseTshayina sele ziqalise ukubakho okukhulu. Umzi-mveliso we-Alpha Group eHo Chi Minh City, owavulwa ngo-2024, ngoku uvelisa i-30% yezinto zokudlala ezithambileyo kunye namanani ezenzo zenkampani, ikakhulu kwiimarike zaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia (kuquka i-Indonesia neMalaysia) kunye ne-EU. "Ukwenza imveliso apha inciphise iindleko zethu zokuthumela nge-40% xa kuthelekiswa nokuthumela ngaphandle eTshayina ukuya eJakarta," uqaphela uWang Jian. Lo mzi-mveliso ukwaxhamla kwizivumelwano zorhwebo olukhululekileyo zaseVietnam (ii-FTA) kunye ne-EU kunye ne-ASEAN, ususa irhafu kwiintengiso ezininzi zeento zokudlala ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
Urhulumente waseVietnam uye wayenza mnandi le sivumelwano ngezibonelelo zerhafu: abavelisi bamanye amazwe banandipha iminyaka emi-4 ukuya kweli-10 yokungahlawuli irhafu yengeniso yeenkampani, kulandele iminyaka emi-5 ukuya kweli-10 yokuncitshiswa kwerhafu ngama-50%. Nangona kunjalo, imingeni isekho, kuquka ukunqongophala kwabasebenzi abanezakhono (ingakumbi ekuhlanganiseni iithoyi ze-elektroniki) kunye nababoneleli basekuhlaleni abambalwa bezinto ezikumgangatho ophezulu—okunyanzela iinkampani ezininzi ukuba zingenise i-40-60% yezinto ezikrwada ezivela eTshayina.
IMexico: Isikhungo Sokufikelela Elunxwemeni eMntla Melika
IMexico iye yaba yindawo ephambili kwiinkampani zokudlala ezijolise kwimarike yokudlala yaseMelika exabisa i-$38 yeebhiliyoni, isebenzisa ukusondela kwayo kunye neSivumelwano se-US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA). Ukufikelela kwiindawo ezikufutshane—ukubeka imveliso kufutshane neemarike ekujoliswe kuzo—kuye kwaba yinto ethandwayo kushishino, njengoko iifektri zaseMexico zinokuhambisa izinto zokudlala kubathengisi baseMelika kwiintsuku ezi-3-5, xa kuthelekiswa neentsuku ezingama-25-35 ezivela eTshayina.
I-Auldey Toys yavula umzi-mveliso eMonterrey, eMexico, ngo-2025, igxile kwiithoyi zemfundo kunye neeseti zokwakha kwimarike yase-US. "I-USMCA isenza siphephe iirhafu zase-US kwiithoyi zaseTshayina, kwaye amaxesha amafutshane okufumana izinto asenza siphendule ngokukhawuleza kwimfuno yokuthengisa—njengokunyusa imveliso yexesha leeholide," utshilo uLi Ming. Umzi-mveliso ngoku ubonelela nge-20% yee-odolo zase-US zika-Auldey, kunye nezicwangciso zokunyusa loo nto iye kwi-40% ngo-2027.
Iingenelo zeMexico zidlulela ngaphaya kwejografi: icandelo layo lokuvelisa linabasebenzi abazinzileyo (abanamava kwi-elektroniki kunye nokubumba iplastiki) kunye nokufikelela kwiinethiwekhi zezothutho zase-US. Nangona kunjalo, iindleko eziphezulu zamandla kunye neenkxalabo zokhuseleko kwezinye iindawo ziye zabangela iinkampani ukuba zityale imali kwizisombululo zokhuseleko kwindawo kunye namandla avuselelekayo ukunciphisa iingozi.
Ukulawula iNtsebenziswano yaMazwe amaninzi: Imingeni kunye namaqhinga
Nangona imveliso yehlabathi jikelele inika amandla okumelana nobunzima, ikwazisa nemingeni enzima yokulungelelanisa. Iinkampani zokudlala kufuneka zilandele imigaqo eyahlukeneyo, umahluko wenkcubeko, kunye nemiba yokubonakala kwekhonkco lokubonelela ukuqinisekisa ukusebenza kakuhle.
Imingeni ephambili
Ukubonakala kweCandelo loNikezelo:Ukulandelela izinto kumazwe amaninzi—ezifana neenxalenye zeplastiki ezivela eTshayina, izinto ze-elektroniki ezivela eVietnam, kunye nokupakishwa okuvela eMexico—kunokubangela ukulibaziseka ukuba azilawulwa ngokufanelekileyo. Uphando lwe-CTJPA luka-2024 lufumanise ukuba ama-45% abantu abathumela izinto zokudlala kwamanye amazwe abaneefektri zaphesheya bakhankanye “ukubonakala okungekuhle kwekhonkco lokubonelela” njengowona mceli mngeni uphambili.
Ulawulo lwemeko:Ukugcina umgangatho ungaguquguqukiyo kwiifektri kumazwe ahlukeneyo ngomnye umqobo. "Abasebenzi baseVietnam banezakhono ezahlukeneyo kunabasebenzi baseTshayina, ngoko ke kwafuneka sityale imali kuqeqesho olongezelelweyo ukuqinisekisa ukuba amathoyizi ethu ayahlangabezana nemigangatho yokhuseleko ye-EU," ucacisa uWang Jian.
Ukuthobela iMithetho:Ilizwe ngalinye linemigaqo yalo yokhuseleko (njengemigangatho yeKhomishini yoKhuseleko lweMveliso yaBathengi yase-US kunye ne-EN 71 ye-EU) kunye nemithetho yerhafu, efuna iinkampani ziqeshe iingcali zasekuhlaleni ukuze ziphephe ukungathobeli imithetho.
Amaqhinga oLawulo oluSebenzayo
Ukuze boyise le mingeni, iinkampani zokudlala zisebenzisa amaqhinga amatsha:
Ukwenziwa kwedijithali:Iinkampani ezininzi zisebenzisa iinkqubo zolawulo lwe-supply chain (SCM) ezisekelwe kwilifu—ezifana ne-SAP kunye ne-Oracle—ukulandelela uluhlu lwezinto ezisetyenzisiweyo, iishedyuli zemveliso, kunye nokuthunyelwa ngexesha langempela. I-Alpha Group isebenzisa isixhobo se-SCM esisebenza nge-AI esilumkisa amaqela malunga nokulibaziseka okunokwenzeka (njengokunqongophala kwezinto eVietnam) kwaye sicebisa abanye ababoneleli. "Oku kunciphise ukulibaziseka kwethu kwemveliso ngama-30%," utshilo uWang Jian.
Amaqela okuHlanganisa:Ukuqesha abaphathi kunye neenjineli zasekuhlaleni kuye kwaba yinto ebalulekileyo kwimpumelelo. Umzi-mveliso waseMexico wase-Auldey uqesha iqela lemisebenzi yasekuhlaleni elijongana nokuthotyelwa kwemithetho, ubudlelwane nabasebenzi, kunye nothutho, ngelixa ikomkhulu laseTshayina lijongana nesicwangciso sehlabathi. "Amaqela asekuhlaleni ayiqonda ngcono imakethi kunye nenkcubeko—aye asincede sathethathethana ngezivumelwano ezingcono nabathengisi basekuhlaleni," uqaphela uLi Ming.
Ubudlelwane obuCwangcisiweyo:Iinkampani zisebenzisana nabathengisi basekuhlaleni ukunciphisa ukuthembela kwiimpahla ezivela eTshayina. I-Alpha Group isayine izivumelwano nabavelisi beplastiki ababini baseVietnam zokubonelela nge-30% yezinto zayo ezikrwada, ukunciphisa amaxesha okukhokela kunye neendleko zokuhamba.
Iindawo ezibekelwe ixesha likaxakeka:Ukuze kuphendulwe ukuphazamiseka okungalindelekanga (okufana neentlekele zemvelo okanye ukulibaziseka kwemida), iinkampani zigcina uluhlu olungxamisekileyo lwe-10-15% yezinto ezibalulekileyo kwisiseko ngasinye semveliso. "Ngexesha leNkanyamba i-Otis eMexico ngo-2024, isitokhwe sethu esingxamisekileyo sasivumela ukuba sigcine imveliso isebenza iiveki ezimbini," wongeza uLi Ming.
Intsingiselo yexesha elizayo:Imodeli ethi "China + N" Iba Ngumsebenzi Oqhelekileyo
Iingcali zoshishino ziqikelela ukuba imodeli ethi "China + N"—egcina iTshayina njengesiseko semveliso esiphambili ngelixa yongeza ii-hubs ezi-1-2 zaphesheya—iya kuba ngumgangatho oqhelekileyo kubathengisi abakhulu bezinto zokudlala. ITshayina iya kuhlala ibalulekile, ngenxa yekhonkco layo lokubonelela ngezinto ezivuthiweyo, abasebenzi abanezakhono, kunye nobukhulu: I-60-70% yemveliso yezinto zokudlala kwihlabathi liphela kulindeleke ukuba ibe seTshayina ngo-2030, kodwa ngenethiwekhi eyahlukeneyo yeziseko zesibini.
“ITshayina ayithathelwa indawo—iyancediswa,” utshilo uSarah Lee, umhlalutyi omkhulu kwi-Euromonitor International. “Iifektri zaseTshayina ziya kuqhubeka nokujongana nemveliso eninzi neyinkimbinkimbi (njengezinto zokudlala ze-elektroniki), ngelixa iVietnam neMexico zigxila kwiimveliso ezithile zemarike kunye nee-odolo eziphendula ngokukhawuleza.”
Uzinzo luya kudlala indima enkulu kwizigqibo zothungelwano lokubonelela. Iinkampani ezininzi ziyila iifektri zazo zaphesheya ukuze zisebenzise amandla avuselelekayo (njengamandla elanga eVietnam) kwaye zinciphise ukukhutshwa kwekhabhoni, zihambelana nemigaqo yozinzo ye-EU kunye ne-US. "Ifektri yethu yaseMexico isebenzisa amandla elanga angama-50%, angagcini nje ngokunciphisa iindleko kodwa enza iimveliso zethu zibe nomtsalane ngakumbi kubathengisi abakhathalela indalo abafana neTarget kunye neWalmart," utshilo uLi Ming.
Njengoko ishishini lezinto zokudlala lihamba kwixesha elitsha lemveliso yehlabathi, isitshixo sempumelelo sixhomekeke ekulinganiseni: ukusebenzisa amandla esiseko ngasinye semveliso, ukutyala imali kwizixhobo zedijithali zokulungelelanisa, kunye nokuhlala ulungelelene ukuphendula utshintsho lwezopolitiko kunye nemarike. Kwabathumela kwamanye amazwe, ukutshintsha ukusuka kwi-"Made in China" ukuya kwi-"Made Globally" akusekho ukhetho—yimfuneko yokuphumelela kwimarike yezinto zokudlala yehlabathi ekhuphisanayo.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Septemba-19-2025
