IGUANGZHOU, Okthoba [XX] — Sekungamashumi eminyaka, i-"Made in China" ibilokhu iyinsika yemboni yamathoyizi yomhlaba wonke, lapho izwe libalelwa ngaphezu kwama-70% okuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwamathoyizi emhlabeni. Kodwa namuhla, ushintsho olukhulu luyaqhubeka: ukungezwani kwezepolitiki, izindleko zokukhiqiza ezikhuphukayo, kanye nezidingo zokuqina kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kuqhuba amabhizinisi amathoyizi ukuba adlulele ngale kwemodeli eyodwa egxile eShayina eya "ekukhiqizweni okuhlukaniswe umhlaba wonke." IVietnam, iMexico, kanye nezinye izindawo zokukhiqiza ezisafufusa ziyavela njengezisekelo zokukhiqiza zesibili ezibalulekile, kuyilapho izinkampani zibhekene nobunzima bokuxhumanisa amanethiwekhi okunikezwa kwamazwe amaningi. Idatha entsha yemboni ikhombisa ukuthi ama-62% abathumeli bamathoyizi abaphambili baseShayina basungule noma bahlela ukusungula amafektri aphesheya kwezilwandle ngo-2026, kusukela kuma-38% ngo-2020, ngokusho kwe-China Toy & Juvenile Products Association (CTJPA).
Abashayeli Bokuhlela Kabusha: I-Geopolitics kanye Nezingcindezi Zezindleko
Amandla amabili ahambisanayo asheshisa ushintsho lwe-supply chain: izingozi eziqhubekayo ze-geopolitical kanye nokucindezeleka kwezindleko okwandayo eShayina.
Ngasohlangothini lwezepolitiki, ukungezwani kwezohwebo phakathi kwezomnotho ezinkulu kuphazamise imizila yendabuko yokuthumela kwamanye amazwe. I-US, imakethe yamathoyizi enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni, igcine amanani entengo afinyelela ku-25% ezinhlotsheni ezithile zamathoyizi aseShayina kusukela ngo-2018, ngaphandle kwezimpawu zokubuyela emuva ngokushesha. "Lezi zindleko zinciphise inzuzo yethu ngo-8-10% kuma-oda aphethwe yi-US," kusho uWang Jian, umqondisi we-supply chain eShenzhen-based Alpha Group, inkampani ehamba phambili emhlabeni wonke ekhiqiza amathoyizi. I-European Union iphinde yaqinisa imithethonqubo yokungenisa impahla, idinga izitifiketi ezengeziwe zokuthobela imithetho yamathoyizi aseShayina, yandisa izikhathi zokukhokha kanye nezindleko zokuphatha.
Izingcindezi zezindleko eShayina ziye zabhebhethekisa kakhulu lolu shintsho. Izindleko ezimaphakathi zabasebenzi ezindaweni zokukhiqiza amathoyizi zaseShayina—njengeGuangdong neZhejiang—zikhuphuke ngo-6.5% minyaka yonke eminyakeni emihlanu edlule, zafinyelela ku-\(380-\)450 ngenyanga ngo-2025, ngokusho kwedatha ye-CTJPA. Okwamanje, amanani ezinto zokusetshenziswa (kufaka phakathi ama-resin epulasitiki nezingxenye ze-elekthronikhi) aguqukile ngo-12-18% minyaka yonke kusukela ngo-2022, okubangelwa ukuphazamiseka kochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla emhlabeni jikelele. Ngokuphambene nalokho, izindleko zabasebenzi ezindaweni zezimboni zaseVietnam zizungeze ku-\(200-\)280 ngenyanga, kanti amaholo okukhiqiza aseMexico (\(300-\)350 ngenyanga) anikeza izinzuzo zezindleko zokufinyelela emakethe yaseNyakatho Melika.
"Ukusabalalisa izinsiza akugcini nje ngokuba nezindleko—kumayelana nokusinda," kuchaza uLi Ming, i-CEO yeGuangzhou Auldey Toys, eyasungula ifektri yaseVietnam ngo-2023. "Ukuba nezisekelo eziningi zokukhiqiza kusenza sigweme ukuhlaselwa kwentela futhi sigcine imigqa yokulethwa ivulekile uma isifunda esisodwa sibhekene nokuphazamiseka, njengokuvalwa kweShanghai ngo-2022 okwabambezela ukuthunyelwa kwethu amasonto ayisithupha."
Izindawo Eziyinhloko: IVietnam neMexico Zihola Ukuhlelwa Kwesisekelo Sesibili
IVietnam neMexico zivele njengezindawo ezithandwa kakhulu zokwandisa amabhizinisi amathoyizi kwamanye amazwe, ngalinye linikeza izinzuzo ezihlukile ezenzelwe izimakethe ezahlukene.
IVietnam: Isikhungo Esinamandla Sokukhiqiza eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia
IVietnam isibe yindawo engcono kakhulu yokukhonza izimakethe zaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia naseYurophu, ngenxa yendawo yayo ehlelekile, izivumelwano zokuhweba ezikhethekile, kanye nokukhula kohlelo lwezimboni. Umkhakha wokukhiqiza amathoyizi wezwe ukhule ngo-15% minyaka yonke kusukela ngo-2020, kanti ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kufinyelele ku-$3.2 billion ngo-2024, ngokusho kweHhovisi Lezibalo Jikelele laseVietnam.
Izinkampani ezinkulu zamathoyizi zaseShayina sezivele zakha ubukhona obuqinile. Ifektri ye-Alpha Group eHo Chi Minh City, eyavulwa ngo-2024, manje ikhiqiza u-30% wamathoyizi amahle kakhulu kanye nezibalo zesenzo senkampani, ikakhulukazi ezimakethe zaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia (kufaka phakathi i-Indonesia neMalaysia) kanye ne-EU. "Ukukhiqiza lapha kunciphise izindleko zethu zokuthumela ngo-40% uma kuqhathaniswa nokuthumela kusuka eShayina kuya eJakarta," kuphawula uWang Jian. Ifektri iphinde izuze ezivumelwaneni zokuhweba zamahhala zaseVietnam (i-FTA) ne-EU kanye ne-ASEAN, isusa intela ekuthunyelweni kwamathoyizi amaningi.
Uhulumeni waseVietnam uphinde wanciphisa lesi sivumelwano ngezikhuthazo zentela: abakhiqizi bamathoyizi bakwamanye amazwe bajabulela iminyaka engu-4-10 yokukhululwa enteleni yengeniso yezinkampani, kulandelwe iminyaka engu-5-10 yokwehliswa kwentela okungu-50%. Kodwa-ke, kusenezinselelo, okuhlanganisa ukushoda kwabasebenzi abanamakhono (ikakhulukazi ekuhlanganisweni kwamathoyizi kagesi) kanye nabahlinzeki bendawo abambalwa bezingxenye zekhwalithi ephezulu—okuphoqa izinkampani eziningi ukuthi zingenise u-40-60% wezinto zokusetshenziswa ezivela eShayina.
IMexico: Isikhungo Sokusondela Eduze KwaseNorth America
IMexico isibe yindawo ethandwa kakhulu yizinkampani zamathoyizi ezihlose imakethe yamathoyizi yase-US ebiza u-$38 billion, isebenzisa ukusondela kwayo kanye neSivumelwano sase-US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA). Ukusondela—ukuthola ukukhiqizwa eduze kwezimakethe eziqondiwe—sekuyigama elidumile embonini, njengoba izimboni zaseMexico zingaletha amathoyizi kubathengisi base-US ezinsukwini ezingu-3-5, uma kuqhathaniswa nezinsuku ezingu-25-35 ezivela eShayina.
I-Auldey Toys yavula ifektri eMonterrey, eMexico, ngo-2025, igxile kumathoyizi okufundisa kanye namasethi okwakha emakethe yase-US. "I-USMCA isivumela ukuthi sigweme intela yase-US kumathoyizi aseShayina, kanti izikhathi ezimfushane zokukhokha zisenza siphendule ngokushesha esidingweni sokuthengisa—njengokukhulisa umkhiqizo wezinkathi zamaholide," kusho uLi Ming. Ifektri manje ihlinzeka ngo-20% wama-oda ka-Auldey ase-US, ngezinhlelo zokwandisa lokho kube ngu-40% ngo-2027.
Izinzuzo zeMexico zidlulela ngale kwendawo: umkhakha wayo wokukhiqiza unabasebenzi abazinzile (abanolwazi lwe-elekthronikhi kanye nokubumba ipulasitiki) kanye nokufinyelela kumanethiwekhi e-logistics ase-US. Kodwa-ke, izindleko zamandla eziphakeme kanye nokukhathazeka ngokuphepha kwezinye izifunda kuye kwashukumisela izinkampani ukuthi zitshale imali ekuphepheni kwasendaweni kanye nezixazululo zamandla avuselelekayo ukuze kuncishiswe izingozi.
Ukuphatha Ukubambisana Kwamazwe Ahlukahlukene: Izinselele Namasu
Nakuba ukukhiqizwa okusabalalisiwe emhlabeni wonke kunikeza ukuqina, futhi kwethula izinselele eziyinkimbinkimbi zokuxhumanisa. Izinkampani zamathoyizi kumele zibhekane nemithethonqubo ehlukene, umehluko wamasiko, kanye nezinkinga zokubonakala kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka ukuqinisekisa ukusebenza okubushelelezi.
Izinselele Eziyinhloko
Ukubonakala Kwe-Supply Chain:Ukulandelela izingxenye emazweni amaningi—njengezingxenye zepulasitiki ezivela eShayina, izingxenye ze-elekthronikhi ezivela eVietnam, kanye nokupakishwa okuvela eMexico—kungaholela ekubambezelekeni uma kungaphathwa kahle. Ucwaningo lwe-CTJPA lwango-2024 luthole ukuthi ama-45% abathumeli bamathoyizi abanezimboni zaphesheya kwezilwandle bakhomba “ukubonakala okungekuhle kweketanga lokuphakelwa” njengenselele yabo enkulu.
Ikhwalithi yokulawula:Ukugcina ikhwalithi ehambisanayo kuzo zonke izimboni emazweni ahlukene kungenye isithiyo. "Izisebenzi zaseVietnam zinamazinga amakhono ahlukene kunezisebenzi zaseShayina, ngakho-ke kwadingeka sitshale imali ekuqeqeshweni okwengeziwe ukuqinisekisa ukuthi amathoyizi ethu ahlangabezana nezindinganiso zokuphepha ze-EU," kuchaza uWang Jian.
Ukuthobela Imithetho:Izwe ngalinye linemithetho yalo yokuphepha (njengezindinganiso ze-US Consumer Product Safety Commission kanye ne-EN 71 ye-EU) kanye nemithetho yentela, edinga izinkampani ukuthi ziqashe ochwepheshe bendawo ukuze zigweme ukungalandeli imithetho.
Amasu Okuphatha Aphumelelayo
Ukuze kunqotshwe lezi zinselele, izinkampani zamathoyizi zisebenzisa amasu amasha:
Ukwenziwa kwedijithali:Izinkampani eziningi zisebenzisa izinhlelo zokuphathwa kochungechunge lokunikezwa kwempahla (i-SCM) ezisekelwe efwini—njenge-SAP ne-Oracle—ukulandelela isitokwe, amashejuli okukhiqiza, kanye nokuthunyelwa ngesikhathi sangempela. I-Alpha Group isebenzisa ithuluzi le-SCM elisebenzisa i-AI elixwayisa amaqembu ngokubambezeleka okungenzeka (njengokushoda kwezingxenye eVietnam) futhi liphakamise abanye abahlinzeki. "Lokhu kunciphise ukubambezeleka kwethu kokukhiqiza ngo-30%," kusho uWang Jian.
Amaqembu Okwakha Indawo:Ukuqasha abaphathi bendawo nonjiniyela sekuyinto ebalulekile empumelelweni. Ifektri yaseMexico yase-Auldey isebenzisa ithimba lendawo lokusebenza elisingatha ukulandelwa kwemithetho, ubudlelwano bezisebenzi, kanye nezinhlelo zokusebenza, kuyilapho indlunkulu yaseShayina iqondisa isu lomhlaba wonke. "Amaqembu endawo aqonda kangcono imakethe kanye namasiko—asisize saxoxisana ngezivumelwano ezingcono nabaphakeli bendawo," kuphawula uLi Ming.
Ubambiswano Oluhlelekile:Izinkampani zibambisana nabahlinzeki bendawo ukunciphisa ukuthembela ekuthengeni okuvela eChina. I-Alpha Group isayine izivumelwano nabakhiqizi ababili bepulasitiki baseVietnam zokuhlinzeka ngo-30% wezinto zayo zokusetshenziswa, ukunciphisa izikhathi zokukhokha kanye nezindleko zokuhamba.
Izindawo Zokubhukha Eziphuthumayo:Ukuze kuphendulwe ukuphazamiseka okungalindelekile (njengezinhlekelele zemvelo noma ukubambezeleka kwemingcele), izinkampani zigcina uhlu oluphuthumayo lwezingxenye ezibalulekile oluyi-10-15% kuzo zonke izikhungo zokukhiqiza. "Ngesikhathi seSiphepho i-Otis eMexico ngo-2024, isitoko sethu esiphuthumayo sasenza sagcina umkhiqizo usebenza amasonto amabili," kusho uLi Ming.
Ithrendi Yesikhathi Esizayo:Imodeli ethi "China + N" Iba Yindlela Ejwayelekile
Ochwepheshe bezimboni babikezela ukuthi imodeli ethi "China + N"—egcina iChina njengesisekelo sokukhiqiza esiyinhloko ngenkathi ingeza izindawo ezingaphandle kwezwe eziyi-1-2—izoba yindinganiso yabathumeli bamathoyizi abakhulu. I-China izohlala ibalulekile, ngenxa yochungechunge lwayo lokuhlinzeka oluvuthiwe, abasebenzi abanamakhono, kanye nobukhulu: 60-70% wokukhiqizwa kwamathoyizi emhlabeni wonke kulindeleke ukuthi kube se-China ngo-2030, kodwa ngenethiwekhi ehlukahlukene kakhulu yezisekelo zesibili.
"IShayina ayithathelwa indawo—iyapheleliswa," kusho uSarah Lee, umhlaziyi omkhulu kwa-Euromonitor International. "Izimboni zaseShayina zizoqhubeka nokusingatha ukukhiqizwa okunomthamo omkhulu nokuyinkimbinkimbi (njengamathoyizi kagesi), kuyilapho iVietnam neMexico zigxila emikhiqizweni ethile emakethe kanye nama-oda okuphendula ngokushesha."
Ukuzinza kuzodlala indima enkulu ezinqumweni zochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla. Izinkampani eziningi ziklama amafektri azo aphesheya kwezilwandle ukuze asebenzise amandla avuselelekayo (njengamandla elanga eVietnam) futhi anciphise ukukhishwa kwekhabhoni, ngokuvumelana nemithetho ye-EU neye-US yokuzinza. "Ifektri yethu yaseMexico isebenzisa amandla elanga angu-50%, okungagcini nje ngokunciphisa izindleko kodwa futhi okwenza imikhiqizo yethu ikhange kakhulu kubathengisi abaqaphela imvelo njengeTarget kanye neWalmart," kusho uLi Ming.
Njengoba imboni yamathoyizi idlula enkathini entsha yokukhiqizwa komhlaba wonke, isihluthulelo sempumelelo sisekulinganiseni: ukusebenzisa amandla esisekelo ngasinye sokukhiqiza, ukutshala imali kumathuluzi edijithali okuxhumanisa, nokuhlala ushesha ukuphendula izinguquko zezwe kanye nezemakethe. Kwabathumela kwamanye amazwe, ukushintsha kusuka ku-"Made in China" kuya ku-"Made Globally" akuseyona inketho - kuyisidingo sokuchuma emakethe yamathoyizi yomhlaba wonke encintisanayo.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Septhemba-19-2025
