Kua whānui ake te hokohoko ā-ao$300 pirionai te H1 2025—engari ka huihui ngā kapua tupuhi i te mea ka whakatuma ngā pakanga tāke me te koretake o ngā kaupapa here i te pumau o te H2.
Te Mahi H1: Ko ngā Ratonga te Arataki i waenganui i te Tipu Ngāwari
I te haurua tuatahi o te tau 2025, i piki ake te hokohoko o te ao i te $300 piriona, ā, i te hauwhā tuatahi, ka piki ake te tipu o te 1.5% ki te 2% i te hauwhā tuarua. Heoi, i raro i ngā tatauranga matua, i puta ake ngā ngoikoretanga nui:
Ko te hokohoko ratonga te mea nui rawa atu, e tipu haere ana9% tau-ki-te-taur, i te mea i puhoi te hokohoko taonga nā te ngoikore o te tono whakanao.
I hunaia e te pikinga utu te ngoikore o ngā rahinga:I piki ake te uara hokohoko whānui nā te pikinga o ngā utu, engari i noho pūmau te tipu o te rahinga hokohoko tuturu ki te1%.
Te hōhonu haere o ngā taurite kore:I tino whānui haere te nama a te US, ahakoa te pikinga ake o ngā toenga o te EU me Haina. I piki ake ngā kawemai a te US14%, ā, kua piki ake ngā kaweake a te EU6%, e whakahuri ana i ngā ia o mua e pai ai ngā ōhanga o te Tonga o te Ao.
Ahakoa he pai tēnei tipu, i whakawhirinaki ki ngā āhuatanga rangitahi—tērā pea ko ngā kawemai i utaina i mua i ngā taake e matapaetia ana—kaua ki te tono rauropi.
Te Whakatakoto i ngā Hau H2: Ko ngā Mōrearea Kaupapahere te Take Matua
Te Whakapikitanga o ngā Tari me te Wehewehenga
Kua rite te US ki te whakatinana i ngā taripa taumata-tiketike mai i te 1 o Ākuhata, tae atu ki te takoha 20% mō ngā kawemai tika mai i Vietnam me te whiu 40% mō ngā taonga kua whakawhitihia—he whiu tika ki ngā kaweake Hainamana kua hurihia te ara 8. E whai ake ana tēnei i te tihi hītori o te koretake o te kaupapa here hokohoko i te marama o Āperira, i kite ai ngā pakihi i te tere o ngā tuku hei karo i ngā utu o muri mai 2. Ko ngā pānga whānui he ao whānui: Nō nā tata nei i whakatakoto a Vietnam i ngā takoha ārai-tuku ki te maitai Hainamana, ā, i heke iho ai ngā kaweake koiri wera a Haina ki Vietnam mā te 43.6% YoY 8.
Te ngoikore o te tono me ngā tohu ārahi
Te kirimana ota kaweake: I heke te taupū ota kaweake hou a te WTO ki te 97.9, he tohu tēnei i te hekenga, i te mea neke atu i te rua hautoru o ngā whenua i kōrero mō te hekenga o ngā PMI hangahanga.
Te puhoi o Haina:Ko te hekenga o ngā pānui Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) e tohu ana i te hekenga o te tono kawemai me te ngoikore o ngā ota kaweake puta noa i te ao.
Ngā ōhanga whakawhanake kua pēhia:I noho pūmau te hokohoko o te Tonga-Tonga, ā, i heke te kawemai a ngā whenua whakawhanake mā te 2%. Ko te hokohoko i roto i a Āwherika anake i whakaatu i te manawanui (+5%).
Ngā Taupatupatu Ā-Iwi me ngā Pakanga Tautoko
"Kei te wehewehea ngā mekameka tuku e ngā whakarerekētanga rautaki hokohoko" — tae atu ki ngā tautoko ahumahi me te "whakapūmau hoa". Kua whakatūpato te UNCTAD ka raru pea tēneingā mahi rapu utuā, ka whakanui ake i te ngangau tauhokohoko o te ao.
Ngā Wāhi Mārama: Te Whakaurunga ā-Rohe me ngā Rautaki Urutau
Ahakoa ngā mōrearea, ka tukuna e ngā panoni hanganga he ārai:
Te tere o te whakaaetanga hokohoko:E whitu ngā whakaaetanga tauhokohoko ā-rohe hou i whai mana i te tau 2024 (ki te 4 i te tau 2023), tae atu ki ngā whakaaetanga EU-Chile me Haina-Nicaragua. Ko te whakaurunga o te UK ki te CPTPP me te whānui o te Rohe Tauhokohoko Koreutu o Awherika i whakakaha ake i ngā poraka rohe.
Te pakari o te hokohoko ratonga:Kei te tipu haere tonu ngā ratonga matihiko, te tūruhi, me te raihana IP, he mea ārai i ngā taake e pā ana ki ngā taonga.
Te urutaunga mekameka tuku:Kei te whakawhānui ake ngā kamupene i ā rātou rauemi—hei tauira, kei te huri ngā kaihoko maitai o Haina ki ngā mākete ā-rohe o Āhia ki te Tonga-mā-rāwhiti i te kati o ngā huarahi whakawhiti kaipuke o Amerika.
"Ehara te whakaurunga ā-rohe i te mea he ārai noa iho—kei te huri hei hoahoa hou mō te hokohoko ā-ao,"e ai ki tētahi kaitātari o te Peeke o te Ao.
Te Arotahi ki te Rāngai: Te Whakaaturanga a te Rino me te Hikohiko i ngā Ara Rerekē
Kei te whakapaea te rino: Nā ngā taake a te US me ngā taake aukati-tuku a Vietnam i whakaheke i ngā kaweake rino matua a Haina. E matapaetia ana ka heke te nui o ngā hoko rino ki Vietnam mō te tau katoa 2025 mā te 4 miriona tana mita.
Te hokinga mai o te hikohiko: I piki ake te taupū wāhanga hiko (102.0) i runga ake i te ia o te wā i muri i ngā tau ngoikore e rua, nā te tono mō ngā hanganga AI.
Te manawanui o ngā motuka: Nā te hanga waka i tautoko te taupū hua motuka (105.3), ahakoa te ahua nei he riri hou ngā utu tāke mō ngā EV Hainamana.
Te Ara Whakamua: Te Māramatanga o ngā Kaupapa Here hei Take Whakatau
E whakanui ana te UNCTAD ko ngā putanga H2 e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā pou e toru:te māramatanga o ngā kaupapa here,te whakahekenga o te ōhanga whenua, mete urutau o te mekameka tukuE matapaetia ana e te WTO te tipu o te tau 2025 ki te 1.8%—tata ki te haurua o ngā toharite i mua i te mate urutā—me te kaha anō ki te hoki ki2.7% i te tau 2026ki te mea ka memeha haere ngā taumahatanga.
Ngā tirohanga matua mō te hauwhā tuatoru–hauwhā tuawhā o te tau 2025:
Te whakatinanatanga o te tari taake o Amerika i muri i ngā whiriwhiringa o te 1 o Ākuhata
Te whakaoranga o te PMI o Haina me te tono a ngā kaihoko
Te ahunga whakamua i roto i ngā kōrero whakawhānui i waenganui i te EU me Mercosur me te CPTPP
Whakamutunga: Te Whakatere i te Kaupapa Here Taura-iti
Ko te hokohoko ā-ao i te tau 2025 he whakaaturanga o te manawanui i waenganui i te pōrearea. Ko te whakawhānui $300 piriona i te H1 e whakaatu ana i te kaha o te pūnaha ki te tango i ngā ohorere, engari ko ngā mōrearea H2 he hanganga, ehara i te huringa. I te tere haere o te wehewehenga hokohoko, me whakatairanga ngā pakihi i ngā hononga ā-rohe, te mamati mekameka tuku, me te kanorau ratonga.
Ehara i te mea ko te whakaroa i te tono te ngoikoretanga nui rawa atu—engari ko te koretake e whakararu ana i te haumitanga. He nui ake te uara o te māramatanga i te utu nui o ngā tariffs.
Ki ngā kaihanga kaupapa here, he mārama te whakahau: Whakaitihia ngā taripa, whakatairangahia ngā whakaaetanga hokohoko, me te whakatenatena i te urutau. Ko te huarahi kē atu—he pūnaha hokohoko pakarukaru, kua pakaruhia e ngā kaupapa here—tērā pea ka ngaro te pūkaha tipu matua o te ōhanga o te ao mō ngā tau e haere ake nei.
Wā tuku: Hurae-12-2025
