Ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga bwaguwe naMiliyari 300 z'amadolarimu gihe cy'imvura ya H1 2025—ariko ibicu by'inkubi y'umuyaga biraterana mu gihe intambara z'imisoro n'ibibazo bya politiki bibangamira umutekano wa H2.
Imikorere ya H1: Serivisi ziyoboye mu iterambere ritoroshye
Ubucuruzi ku isi bwagaragaje ukwiyongera kwa miliyari 300 z'amadolari mu gice cya mbere cya 2025, aho ukwiyongera kwa kimwe cya mbere kuri 1.5% kugera kuri 2% mu gice cya kabiri. Nyamara munsi y'imibare y'ingenzi, hagaragaye intege nke zikomeye:
Ubucuruzi bwa serivisi bwiganjemogukura9% umwaka ushizer, mu gihe ubucuruzi bw'ibicuruzwa bwatinze kubera ko nta nganda zikenewe cyane.
Izamuka ry'ibiciro ryahishe ingano y'intege nke:Agaciro k'ubucuruzi muri rusange kazamutse cyane bitewe n'izamuka ry'ibiciro, mu gihe ubwiyongere bw'ubucuruzi mu by'ukuri bwahagaze ku1%.
Kongera ubusumbane:Igihombo cya Amerika cyariyongereye cyane, nubwo EU n'Ubushinwa byabonye amafaranga y'inyongera yiyongera. Ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga byariyongereye cyane muri Amerika.14%, kandi ibyoherezwa mu mahanga by’Umuryango w’Ubumwe bw’u Burayi byariyongereye6%, bihindura uko ibintu byari bimeze mbere byari bishyigikiye ubukungu bw'Isi yo mu Majyepfo.
Nubwo iri zamuka ry’ubukungu ryari ryiza, ryashingiye ku bintu by’igihe gito—cyane cyane ibicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga mbere y’uko bisubizwa mu misoro—aho kuba ibyo abantu bakenera mu buryo bw’umwimerere.
Gushyira umuyaga wa H2 ku mpande zombi: Ingaruka za politiki zigaragara ku rwego rwo hejuru
Izamuka ry'ibiciro n'igabanywa ry'ibice
Amerika yiteguye gushyira mu bikorwa imisoro y’urwego guhera ku ya 1 Kanama, harimo umusoro wa 20% ku bicuruzwa bitumizwa mu mahanga biva muri Vietnam n’igihano cya 40% ku bicuruzwa byajyanywe mu mahanga—imyigaragambyo itaziguye ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga by’Ubushinwa byasubiwemo 8. Ibi bikurikira amateka y’amateka y’ubucuruzi yabaye muri Mata, aho ubucuruzi bwihutishaga ibyoherezwa mu mahanga kugira ngo hirindwe ikiguzi cyabyo cya nyuma. Ingaruka mbi ni iz’isi yose: Vietnam iherutse gushyiraho imisoro yo kurwanya itaka ku byuma by’Ubushinwa, bituma ibyoherezwa mu mahanga by’Ubushinwa muri Vietnam bigabanukaho 43.6% ku mwaka wa 8.
Igabanuka ry'Ubusabe n'Ibipimo Bikurura
Amasezerano y’ibicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga: Igipimo gishya cya WTO ku bicuruzwa byoherezwa mu mahanga cyagabanutse kigera kuri 97.9, bigaragaza ko bigabanuka, mu gihe ibihugu birenga bibiri bya gatatu byatangaje ko PMI z’inganda zikora ibintu bigabanuka.
Igabanuka ry'umuvuduko mu Bushinwa:Kugabanuka kw'ibipimo by'abashinzwe kugura (PMI) bigaragaza ko icyifuzo cyo gutumiza ibicuruzwa mu mahanga cyagabanutse kandi ko ibyoherezwa mu mahanga byoroshye ku isi.
Ubukungu buri mu nzira y'amajyambere bwagabanutse:Ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu biri mu nzira y’amajyambere bwahagaze, aho ibicuruzwa biva mu bihugu biri mu nzira y’amajyambere byagabanutseho 2%. Ubucuruzi hagati y’ibihugu biri muri Afurika ni bwo bwagaragaje ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’ibibazo (+5%).
Ibibazo bya politiki y'isi n'intambara z'inkunga
"Ivugurura ry'ubucuruzi mu ngamba" - harimo inkunga z'inganda no "gutanga inshuti" - biri guca imiyoboro y'ibicuruzwa. UNCTAD iraburira ko ibi bishobora guteraibikorwa byo kwihorerano kongera ubushyamirane mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga.
Ibyerekezo by'Iterambere: Ingamba zo Guhuza Uturere n'Igenamigambi ryo Kuzihindura
Nubwo hari ingaruka mbi, impinduka mu miterere y'imiterere y'inzu zitanga uburyo bwo kuzirinda:
Iterambere ry'amasezerano y'ubucuruzi:Amasezerano 7 mashya y’ubucuruzi mu karere yatangiye gushyirwa mu bikorwa mu 2024 (ugereranije n’aya 4 muri 2023), harimo amasezerano ya EU-Chili n’Ubushinwa-Nicaragua. Kwinjira k’Ubwongereza muri CPTPP no kwaguka k’Akarere k’Ubucuruzi bw’Umugabane wa Afurika birushaho gushimangira ibihugu bigize akarere.
Ubushobozi bwo guhangana n'ubucuruzi bwa serivisi:Serivisi z'ikoranabuhanga, ubukerarugendo, n'uburenganzira bwa IP bikomeje kwiyongera, birinzwe n'imisoro ijyanye n'ibicuruzwa.
Guhuza n'uruhererekane rw'ibicuruzwa:Amasosiyete arimo gushakisha ibicuruzwa bitandukanye—urugero, abashoramari b’ibyuma bo mu Bushinwa barimo kuzenguruka ku masoko y’imbere mu gihugu yo mu majyepfo y’uburasirazuba bwa Aziya mu gihe inzira zo gutwara ibicuruzwa muri Amerika zirangiye.
"Guhuza uturere si imbogamizi gusa—bihinduka imiterere mishya y'ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga,"Umusesenguzi wa Banki y'Isi avuga ko.
Icyerekezo cy'Urwego: Ibyuma n'ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga bigaragaza inzira zitandukanye
Ibyuma biri mu kaga: Imisoro ya Amerika n'imisoro ya Vietnam yo kurwanya ijugunywa ry'ibicuruzwa byagabanyije ibicuruzwa by'ingenzi by'Ubushinwa byoherezaga mu mahanga. Biteganijwe ko ingano y'ibikoresho bya Vietnam mu mwaka wose wa 2025 izagabanukaho toni miliyoni 4.
Izamuka ry'ibikoresho by'ikoranabuhanga: Igipimo cy'ibice by'ikoranabuhanga (102.0) cyazamutse hejuru y'icyerekezo nyuma y'imyaka ibiri idakora neza, bitewe n'ibyifuzo by'ibikorwa remezo bya AI.
Ubushobozi bwo guhangana n'imodoka: Umusaruro w'imodoka wazamuye igipimo cy'ibicuruzwa by'imodoka (105.3), nubwo imisoro ku modoka z'amashanyarazi zo mu Bushinwa isa n'aho ari ikibazo gishya.
Inzira Igana Imbere: Gusobanura Politiki mu buryo Busobanutse nk'Ishingiro ry'Igenamigambi
UNCTAD ishimangira ko ibyavuye mu bushakashatsi bwa H2 bishingiye ku nkingi eshatu:gusobanuka neza kwa politiki,igabanuka ry'ubukungu mu rwego rw'isi, naguhuza n'uburyo bwo gutanga ibicuruzwaIkigo cy’imari n’imigabane (WTO) giteganya ko iterambere rya 2025 rizaba ku kigero cya 1.8%—hafi kimwe cya kabiri cy’impuzandengo mbere y’icyorezo—aho gishobora kongera kwiyongera kugeza kuri2.7% muri 2026niba impagarara zigabanuka.
Ingingo z'ingenzi zo kwitondera muri kota ya 3–kota ya 4 2025:
Ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry'imisoro muri Amerika nyuma y'ibiganiro byo ku ya 1 Kanama
PMI y'Ubushinwa n'izamuka ry'ibyifuzo by'abaguzi
Intambwe yatewe mu biganiro byo kwagura EU-Mercosur na CPTPP
Umwanzuro: Gukoresha umurongo uhamye wa politiki
Ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga mu 2025 bugaragaza ubushobozi bwo guhangana n’ihindagurika ry’ikirere. Kwaguka kwa miliyari 300 z’amadolari ya Amerika H1 bigaragaza ubushobozi bw’iyi gahunda bwo kwihanganira ingaruka mbi, ariko ingaruka za H2 ni iz’imiterere, ntabwo ari iz’ihindagurika ry’ikirere. Uko ubucuruzi bugenda bwiyongera, ubucuruzi bugomba gushyira imbere ubufatanye mu karere, gukoresha imiyoboro y’ibikoresho mu buryo bw’ikoranabuhanga, no gukwirakwiza serivisi zitandukanye.
Ikibazo gikomeye si ukugabanya icyifuzo—ni ukudasobanukirwa neza bituma ishoramari rihagarara. Ubu ubushishozi burushaho kugira agaciro kurusha uko imisoro ihenze.
Ku bashyiraho politiki, inshingano irasobanutse: Kugabanya imisoro, guteza imbere amasezerano y'ubucuruzi, no gushishikariza abantu kuyahindura. Ubundi buryo—uburyo bw'ubucuruzi busesenguwe kandi budafite gahunda—bushobora gutakaza ubukungu bw'isi moteri yayo y'ingenzi y'iterambere mu myaka iri imbere.
Igihe cyo kohereza: Nyakanga-12-2025
