Kutengeserana kwepasi rose kwakawedzera nemabhiriyoni mazana matatu emadhoramuH1 2025—asi makore edutu anoungana sezvo hondo dzemitero uye kusava nechokwadi kwemitemo kuchityisidzira kugadzikana kweH2.
Kushanda kweH1: Mutungamiriri weMabasa Pakati Pekukura Kusina Kusimba
Kutengeserana kwepasi rose kwakawedzera nemadhora mabhiriyoni mazana matatu emadhora muhafu yekutanga ya2025, nekukura kwekota yekutanga pa1.5% kusvika 2% mukota yechipiri. Asi pasi pehuwandu hwezvinhu zvakaonekwa, matambudziko makuru akabuda:
Kutengeserana kwemasevhisi kwaitongakukura9% pagorer, nepo kutengeserana kwezvinhu kwakaderera nekuda kwekushaikwa kwezvinodiwa pakugadzira.
Kukwira kwemitengo kwakavharwa nehuwandu husina kusimba:Kukosha kwekutengeserana kwakakwira zvakanyanya nekuda kwemitengo iri kuwedzera, ukuwo kukura kwehuwandu hwekutengeserana kwakamira pa1%.
Kuwedzera kusawirirana:Kushomeka kwemari muUS kwakawedzera zvakanyanya, kunyangwe EU neChina zvakaona mari yakawanda ichikwira. Zvinhu zvinopinzwa kunze kwenyika zvakawedzera zvakanyanya.14%uye kutengeswa kwezvinhu kunze kwenyika muEU kwakawedzera6%, zvichidzosera shure maitiro ekare aibatsira hupfumi hwepasi rose hwekuSouth.
Kukura uku, kunyangwe kwakanaka, kwaivimba nezvinhu zvenguva pfupi—kunyanya zvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvisati zvatengeswa—pane kudiwa kwezvinhu zvakasikwa.
Kuisa H2 Headwinds: Njodzi dzeMutemo Dziri Pakati Penzvimbo
Kukwira Kwemitero uye Kupatsanurwa
US yakagadzirira kuisa mitero yematanho kutanga musi wa1 Nyamavhuvhu, kusanganisira mutero we20% pazvinhu zvinopinzwa zvakananga kubva kuVietnam uye mutero we40% pazvinhu zvinofambiswa—kuramwa zvakananga kwezvinhu zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zveChina zvakadzoserwa 8. Izvi zvinotevera kukwirira kwenhoroondo kwaKubvumbi mukusaziva kwemutemo wekutengeserana, uko kwakaona mabhizinesi achikurumidzisa kutumira zvinhu kuti vadzivise mitengo inotevera. Mhedzisiro yacho ndeyepasi rose: Vietnam ichangobva kuisa mitero yekurambidza kurasa zvinhu pasimbi yeChina, zvichiita kuti kutengesa zvinhu zveChina kuVietnam kudzikire ne43.6% YoY8.
Kuderera Kwekuda Kwevanhu uye Zviratidzo Zvinotungamira
Chibvumirano chekutumira zvinhu kunze kwenyika: Nhamba itsva yeWTO yekutumira zvinhu kunze kwenyika yakaderera kusvika pa97.9, zvichiratidza kudzikira, nepo nyika dzinopfuura zvikamu zviviri kubva muzvitatu dzakashuma kudzikira kwePMI dzekugadzira zvinhu.
Kuderera kweChina:Kuderera kwekuverenga kwePurchasing Managers' Index (PMI) kunoratidza kudzikira kwekudiwa kwezvinhu zvinopinzwa munyika uye kuderera kwemitengo yekutumira zvinhu kunze kwenyika pasi rose.
Kubudirira kwehupfumi kwakamanikidzwa:Kutengeserana pakati peSouth neSouth kwakamira, mitengo yezvinhu zvinotengeswa nenyika dziri kusimukira yakaderera ne2%. Kutengeserana kwemukati meAfrica chete ndiko kwakaratidza kusimba (+5%).
Kusawirirana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye hondo dzerubatsiro
"Kugadziriswazve kwekutengeserana kwehurongwa" - kusanganisira rubatsiro rwemaindasitiri uye "kupatsanurana shamwari" - kuri kukanganisa nzira dzekutengesa. UNCTAD inonyevera kuti izvi zvinogona kukonzerazviito zvekutsivauye kuwedzera kusawirirana kwekutengeserana kwenyika dzese.
Nzvimbo Dzakanaka: Kubatanidzwa Kwematunhu uye Maitiro Ekugadzirisa
Pasinei nenjodzi, kuchinja kwechimiro kunopa zvidziviriro:
Kufambira mberi kwechibvumirano chekutengeserana:Zvibvumirano zvitsva zvinomwe zvekutengeserana munzvimbo zvakatanga kushanda muna 2024 (zvichienzaniswa nezvina muna 2023), zvinosanganisira zvibvumirano zveEU-Chile neChina-Nicaragua. Kupinda kweUK muCPTPP uye kuwedzera kweAfrican Continental Free Trade Area kunosimbisa zvikwata zvenharaunda.
Kutsungirira kutengeserana kwebasa:Mabasa edhijitari, kushanya, uye marezenisi eIP zviri kuramba zvichikura, zvichidzivirirwa kubva pamitero yezvinhu zvine chekuita nazvo.
Kugadziriswa kwecheni yekugovera:Makambani ari kutsvaga nzira dzakasiyana-siyana dzekutengesa zvinhu—semuenzaniso, vatengesi vesimbi vekuChina vari kutengesa zvinhu kunze kwenyika vachienda kumisika yemuno yeSoutheast Asia sezvo nzira dzekutumira zvinhu muUS dziri kupera.
"Kubatanidzwa kwenharaunda hakusi kungodzivirira chete—kwava kuva chimiro chitsva chekutengeserana kwepasi rose,"anodaro muongorori weWorld Bank.
Kutariswa Kwechikamu: Simbi neMagetsi Zvinoratidza Nzira Dzakasiyana-siyana
Simbi iri kukombwa: Mitero yeUS uye mitero yeVietnam yekurambidza kuraswa kwesimbi zvakaderedza kutengeswa kwesimbi kuChina. Mari yegore rose ra2025 kuVietnam inotarisirwa kudzikira nemamiriyoni mana ematani.
Kudzoka kwemagetsi: Nhamba yezvikamu zvemagetsi (102.0) yakakwira kupfuura mwero mushure memakore maviri asina kusimba, zvichikonzerwa nekudiwa kwezvivakwa zveAI.
Kugona Kugara Nesimba Kwemotokari: Kugadzirwa kwemotokari kwakasimudzira indekisi yezvigadzirwa zvemotokari (105.3), kunyange hazvo mitengo yemotokari dzemagetsi dzekuChina ichiratidzika senjodzi itsva.
Nzira Yekufambira Mberi: Kujeka Kwemutemo Sechinhu Chinosarudza
UNCTAD inosimbisa kuti mhedzisiro yeH2 yakavakirwa pazvikamu zvitatu:kujeka kwemutemo,kudzikira kwehupfumi hwenyikauyekuchinjika kwecheni yekugoveraWTO inofungidzira kukura kwegore ra2025 pa1.8%—inenge hafu yeavhareji yeavhareji isati yatanga denda—nekugona kuwedzerazve ku2.7% muna 2026kana kusawirirana kwaderera.
Zvinhu zvakakosha zvekutarisa muchikamu chechitatu kusvika chechina chegore ra2025:
Kuiswa kwemitero yeUS mushure mehurukuro dzaNyamavhuvhu 1
PMI yeChina uye kudzoreredzwa kwezvinodiwa nevatengi
Kufambira mberi muhurukuro dzekuwedzera dzeEU-Mercosur neCPTPP
Mhedziso: Kufamba muPolicy Tightrope
Kutengeserana kwepasi rose muna 2025 kunoratidza kusimba pakati pekushanduka-shanduka. Kuwedzera kweH1 $300 bhiriyoni kunoratidza kugona kwehurongwa hwekukwanisa kugamuchira kushamisika, asi njodzi dzeH2 dzakarongwa, kwete kutenderera. Sezvo kupatsanurwa kwekutengeserana kuri kuwedzera, mabhizinesi anofanirwa kukoshesa kubatana kwedunhu, kuchinjisa zvinhu zvemagetsi, uye kupatsanura masevhisi.
Dambudziko guru harisi kunonoka kwezvinodiwa—kusava nechokwadi ndiko kunomisa mari yekudyara. Kujeka kwezvinhu ikozvino kwava kukosha kupfuura mitengo inodhura.
Kune vanogadzira mitemo, basa racho rakajeka: Kuderedza mitengo, kufambisira mberi zvibvumirano zvekutengeserana, uye kukurudzira kugadziriswa kwemamiriro ezvinhu. Imwe nzira—hurongwa hwekutengeserana hwakakamurwa, husina kurongeka—hunogona kukanganisa hupfumi hwenyika yose kwemakore anotevera.
Nguva yekutumira: Chikunguru-12-2025
