Urhwebo lwehlabathi lwandiswe yiIibhiliyoni ezingama-300 zeerandikwi-H1 ka-2025—kodwa amafu esiphepho ayaqokelelana njengoko iimfazwe zerhafu kunye nokungaqiniseki kwemigaqo-nkqubo kusongela uzinzo lwe-H2.
Ukusebenza kwe-H1: Iinkonzo Ezikhokelayo Phakathi Kokukhula Okubuthathaka
Urhwebo lwehlabathi lurekhode ukunyuka kwe-$300 yeebhiliyoni kwisiqingatha sokuqala sowama-2025, apho ukukhula kwekota yokuqala kwi-1.5% kukhawulezisa ukuya kwi-2% kwikota yesibini. Nangona kunjalo, phantsi kwamanani aphambili, kuvele ubuthathaka obubalulekileyo:
Urhwebo lweenkonzo lulawulwa kakhulu., ukukhula9% ngonyakar, ngelixa urhwebo lweempahla luhlehlisiwe ngenxa yemfuno ebuthathaka yokuvelisa.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kufihlwe ubuninzi obubuthathaka:Ixabiso lorhwebo ngokubanzi lenyuke kakhulu ngenxa yokunyuka kwamaxabiso, ngelixa ukukhula komthamo worhwebo kuye kwahlala ku-12% nje kuphela.1%.
Ukwandisa ukungalingani:Ingxaki yokusilela kwe-US yanda kakhulu, nangona i-EU ne-China zibona ukunyuka kwengeniso.14%, kwaye ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwi-EU kwanda6%, ukubuyisa iindlela zangaphambili ezazinceda uqoqosho lwaseMzantsi weHlabathi.
Olu kukhula, nangona lulungile, luxhomekeke kwizinto zexeshana—ngokukodwa ukungeniswa kwempahla ngaphandle okulayishwe ngaphambili ngaphambi kweerhafu ezilindelweyo—kunokuba kufuneke izinto eziphilayo.
Ukufaka ii-H2 Headwinds: Iingozi zoMgaqo-nkqubo Zithatha Inqanaba Eliphambili
Ukunyuka kweerhafu kunye nokuqhekeka
I-US ikulungele ukuphumeza iirhafu ezimiselweyo ukususela nge-1 ka-Agasti, kuquka irhafu ye-20% kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa ngqo ezivela eVietnam kunye nesohlwayo se-40% kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe—uqhankqalazo oluthe ngqo kwiimpahla ezithunyelwa kwamanye amazwe zaseTshayina ezithunyelwe kwamanye amazwe 8. Oku kulandela incopho yembali ka-Epreli yokungaqiniseki komgaqo-nkqubo worhwebo, apho amashishini ekhawulezisa ukuthunyelwa kwempahla ukuze kuthintelwe iindleko kamva 2. Iziphumo ezibi zisemhlabeni jikelele: IVietnam isandula ukumisela irhafu yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma kwisinyithi saseTshayina, nto leyo ebangele ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwe-coil eshushu eTshayina eVietnam kwehle ngama-43.6% ngonyaka 8.
Izidingo Ezibuthathaka kunye Nezikhombisi Eziphambili
Isivumelwano see-odolo zokuthumela ngaphandle: Isalathisi esitsha see-odolo zokuthumela ngaphandle se-WTO sehle saya kwi-97.9, nto leyo ebonisa ukuncipha, ngelixa ngaphezulu kwesibini kwisithathu samazwe abike ukuncipha kwee-PMI zokuvelisa.
Ukwehla kwesantya eTshayina:Ukwehla kokufundwa kwe-Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) kubonisa ukwehla kwemfuno yokungenisa impahla kunye nokuthotywa kwee-odolo zokuthumela impahla kwamanye amazwe kwihlabathi liphela.
Uqoqosho olusakhulayo lucinezelwe:Urhwebo phakathi kweMzantsi-Mzantsi luye lwama, ukungeniswa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe asaphuhlayo kwehle nge-2%. Urhwebo lwangaphakathi eAfrika kuphela olubonakalise ukuqina (+5%).
Iingxaki zezelizwe kunye neemfazwe zenkxaso-mali
"Uhlengahlengiso lwezorhwebo olucwangcisiweyo" — kuquka inkxaso-mali yemizi-mveliso kunye "nokwabelana ngobuhlobo" — kuyawaqhekeza amakhonkco okubonelela. I-UNCTAD ilumkisa ukuba oku kunokubangelaizenzo zokuziphindezelakwaye kwandise ukungqubana korhwebo lwehlabathi.
Iindawo Eziqaqambileyo: Ukuhlanganiswa Kwemimandla kunye Nezicwangciso Zokuziqhelanisa
Nangona kukho iingozi, utshintsho kwisakhiwo lubonelela ngezithintelo:
Isantya sesivumelwano sorhwebo:Izivumelwano zorhwebo zengingqi ezi-7 ezintsha zaqala ukusebenza ngo-2024 (xa kuthelekiswa nezi-4 ngo-2023), kuquka nezivumelwano ze-EU-Chile kunye ne-China-Nicaragua. Ukungena kwe-UK kwi-CPTPP kunye nokwandiswa kwe-African Continental Free Trade Area kuqinisa ngakumbi iibloko zengingqi.
Ukuqina korhwebo lwenkonzo:Iinkonzo zedijithali, ukhenketho, kunye neelayisenisi ze-IP ziyaqhubeka nokukhula, zikhuselwe kwiirhafu ezinxulumene neempahla.
Uhlengahlengiso lwekhonkco lobonelelo:Iinkampani ziyahlukahlukana iindlela zokufumana izinto—umz., abathengisi bentsimbi baseTshayina bathumela izinto kwamanye amazwe kwiimarike zasekhaya zaseMzantsi-mpuma Asia njengoko iindlela zokuthutha impahla e-US zivala.
"Ukuhlanganiswa kwemimandla akusiyonto nje yokuthintela—kuba yindlela entsha yokwakhiwa korhwebo lwehlabathi,"utsho njalo umhlalutyi weBhanki yeHlabathi.
Ukuvezwa kweCandelo: Intsimbi kunye ne-Elektroniki zigqamisa iindlela ezahlukeneyo
Intsimbi iphantsi koxinzelelo: Iirhafu zase-US kunye nemisebenzi yaseVietnam yokulwa nokulahla inkunkuma ziye zanciphisa ukuthunyelwa kwentsimbi ebalulekileyo eTshayina. Umthamo wonyaka wonke ka-2025 ukuya eVietnam kulindeleke ukuba wehle ngeetoni ezi-4 zezigidi.
Ukubuyela umva kwe-elektroniki: Isalathisi sezinto ze-elektroniki (102.0) sinyuke ngaphezu komkhwa emva kweminyaka emibini ebuthathaka, ngenxa yemfuno yeziseko zophuhliso ze-AI.
Ukuqina kweemoto: Ukuveliswa kwezithuthi kunyuse isalathisi seemveliso zeemoto (105.3), nangona amaxabiso kwiimoto ze-EV zaseTshayina ebonakala ngathi sisongelo esitsha.
Indlela Eya Phambili: Ukucaca Kwemigaqo-nkqubo Njengento Ethatha Isigqibo
I-UNCTAD igxininisa ukuba iziphumo ze-H2 zixhomekeke kwiintsika ezintathu:ukucaca komgaqo-nkqubo,ukuhla koqoqosho lwendawokunyeukulungelelana kwekhonkco lokubonelelaI-WTO iqikelela ukukhula kuka-2025 kwi-1.8%—phantse ibe sisiqingatha se-avareji yangaphambi kobhubhane—kunye nokubuyela umva okunokwenzeka kwi-2.7% ngo-2026ukuba uxinzelelo luyaphela.
Izinto ezibalulekileyo ekufuneka ziqwalaselwe kwikota yesi-3 ukuya kweyesi-4 ka-2025:
Ukuphunyezwa kwerhafu yase-US emva kweengxoxo zomhla woku-1 ku-Agasti
I-PMI yaseTshayina kunye nokubuyiselwa kwemfuno yabathengi
Inkqubela phambili kwiingxoxo zokwandiswa kwe-EU-Mercosur kunye ne-CPTPP
Isiphelo: Ukuhambahamba kwi-Policy Tightrope
Urhwebo lwehlabathi ngo-2025 lubonisa ukuqina phakathi kokuguquguquka. Ukwandiswa kwe-H1 $300 yeebhiliyoni kungqina amandla enkqubo okwamkela ukukhwankqiswa, kodwa iingozi ze-H2 zizinto ezicwangcisiweyo, azihambelani nomjikelo. Njengoko ukuqhekeka korhwebo kusanda, amashishini kufuneka abeke phambili ubudlelwane bengingqi, ukwenziwa kwedijithali kwekhonkco lokubonelela, kunye nokwahlukahluka kweenkonzo.
Eyona nto inobungozi kakhulu ayikokucothisa imfuno—kukungaqiniseki okubangela ukuba utyalo-mali lungasebenzi kakuhle. Ukucaca ngoku kuxabiseke ngaphezu kokuba iindleko zibiza.
Kwabenzi bomgaqo-nkqubo, umyalelo ucacile: Yehlisa iindleko, qhubela phambili izivumelwano zorhwebo, kwaye ukhuthaze ukuziqhelanisa. Enye indlela—inkqubo yokurhweba eqhekekileyo, ephazamisekileyo kwimigaqo-nkqubo—inokubiza uqoqosho lwehlabathi injini yalo yokukhula ephambili kwiminyaka ezayo.
Ixesha leposi: Julayi-12-2025
