Ukuhwebelana komhlaba wonke kwanda ngo-AmaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingama-300ngo-H1 2025—kodwa amafu esiphepho ayahlangana njengoba izimpi zentela kanye nokungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo kusongela ukuzinza kwe-H2.
Ukusebenza kwe-H1: Ukuhola Kwezinsizakalo Phakathi Kokukhula Okubuthakathaka
Ukuhwebelana komhlaba wonke kuqophe ukwanda kwamaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingama-300 engxenyeni yokuqala ka-2025, kanti ukukhula kwekota yokuqala ku-1.5% kukhuphuke kwaya ku-2% kwikota yesibili. Kodwa ngaphansi kwezibalo eziphambili, kwavela ubuthakathaka obubalulekile:
Ukuhweba ngezinsizakalo kubusa kakhulu., ukukhula9% ngonyakar, kuyilapho ukuhweba ngezimpahla kubambezelekile ngenxa yesidingo esibuthakathaka sokukhiqiza.
Ukwehla kwamandla entengo kufihlile amanani abuthakathaka:Inani lokuhweba selilonke lenyuke kakhulu ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani, kanti ukukhula kwenani lokuhweba langempela kume kancane nje1%.
Ukwanda kokungalingani:Isikweletu se-US sanda kakhulu, ngisho nalapho i-EU ne-China zibona ukwanda kwenani lezinto ezithengiswayo. Ukungeniswa kwempahla e-US kwanda kakhulu.14%, futhi ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwe-EU kwanda6%, ukuguqula imikhuba yangaphambilini eyayivuna umnotho we-Global South.
Lokhu kukhula, nakuba kwakukuhle, kuncike ezicini zesikhashana—ikakhulukazi ukungenisa okulayishwe kusengaphambili ngaphambi kwentela elindelwe—kunokuba kudingeke ngendlela yemvelo.
Ukufaka Iziphepho Eziphezulu ze-H2: Izingozi Zenqubomgomo Zithatha Isigaba Esiphambili
Ukwenyuka Kwentela Nokuhlukaniswa
I-US ikulungele ukusebenzisa amanani entengo asezingeni kusukela ngomhlaka-1 Agasti, okuhlanganisa intela engu-20% ekungenisweni okuqondile okuvela eVietnam kanye nenhlawulo engu-40% ezimpahleni ezithuthwayo—isiteleka esiqondile ekuthunyelweni kwamanye amazwe kwaseShayina okudluliselwe kwenye indawo 8. Lokhu kulandela isiqongo somlando sika-Ephreli sokungaqiniseki kwenqubomgomo yezohwebo, okwabona amabhizinisi esheshisa ukuthunyelwa ukuze agweme izindleko zakamuva 2. Imiphumela eguquguqukayo isemhlabeni wonke: Muva nje iVietnam ibeke intela yokulwa nokulahla insimbi yaseShayina, okwenza ukuthunyelwa kwe-coil eshisayo eShayina eVietnam kwehle ngo-43.6% ngonyaka 8.
Isidingo Esibuthakathaka kanye Nezinkomba Ezihamba Phambili
Inkontileka yama-oda okuthumela ngaphandle: Inkomba entsha yama-oda okuthumela ngaphandle ye-WTO yehle yaya ku-97.9, okubonisa ukwehla, kuyilapho amazwe angaphezu kwezingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu abike ukwehla kwama-PMI okukhiqiza.
Ukwehla kwesivinini kweShayina:Ukwehla kokufundwa kwe-Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) kusikisela ukwehla kwesidingo sokungenisa kanye nama-oda okuthumela kwamanye amazwe athambile emhlabeni jikelele.
Umnotho osathuthuka ucindezelwe:Ukuhweba phakathi kweNingizimu neNingizimu kumile, kanti ukungeniswa kwempahla kwamanye amazwe asathuthuka kwehle ngo-2%. Ukuhweba ngaphakathi kwe-Afrika kuphela okubonise ukuqina (+5%).
Ukungezwani Kwezepolitiki Nezimpi Zezimali Zoxhaso
"Ukuhlelwa kabusha kwezentengiselwano okunesu" — okuhlanganisa nezibonelelo zezimboni kanye "nokwabela abangani" — kuyahlukanisa izintambo zokuhlinzeka. I-UNCTAD ixwayisa ngokuthi lokhu kungabangelaizenzo zokuziphindiselelafuthi kukhulise ukungezwani kwezohwebo emhlabeni jikelele.
Izindawo Eziqhakazile: Ukuhlanganiswa Kwesifunda kanye Namasu Okuzivumelanisa Nezimo
Naphezu kwezingozi, ukushintsha kwesakhiwo kunikeza ama-buffers:
Umfutho wesivumelwano sokuhweba:Izivumelwano ezintsha zokuhwebelana zesifunda ezingu-7 zaqala ukusebenza ngo-2024 (uma kuqhathaniswa nezingu-4 ngo-2023), okuhlanganisa nezivumelwano ze-EU-Chile kanye ne-China-Nicaragua. Ukungena kwe-UK kwi-CPTPP kanye nokwanda kwe-African Continental Free Trade Area kuqinisa kakhulu ama-bloc esifunda.
Ukuqina kokuhweba ngezinsizakalo:Izinsizakalo zedijithali, ezokuvakasha, kanye nelayisensi ye-IP ziyaqhubeka nokukhula, zivikeleke emananini ahlobene nezimpahla.
Ukulungiswa kochungechunge lokuphakelwa:Izinkampani zishintshashintsha ukutholakala kwezimpahla—isib., abathumeli bensimbi baseShayina baphendukela ezimakethe zasekhaya zaseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia njengoba imizila yokuthutha impahla e-US ivala.
"Ukuhlanganiswa kwesifunda akuyona nje into evimbelayo—sekuba isakhiwo esisha sokuhweba komhlaba wonke,"kuphawula umhlaziyi weBhange Lomhlaba.
Ukugqanyiswa Komkhakha: Insimbi kanye Nezinto Zokusebenza Zigqamisa Izindlela Ezihlukahlukene
Insimbi ivinjezelwe: Izindleko zaseMelika kanye nentela yaseVietnam yokulwa nokulahla imfucuza kuye kwehlisa ukuthunyelwa kwensimbi okubalulekile eShayina. Umthamo wonyaka wonke ka-2025 oya eVietnam kulindeleke ukuthi wehle ngamathani ayizigidi ezine.
Ukubuyela emuva kwe-elekthronikhi: Inkomba yezingxenye ze-elekthronikhi (102.0) ikhuphuke ngaphezu kwesimo ngemuva kweminyaka emibili ebuthaka, iqhutshwa yisidingo sengqalasizinda ye-AI.
Ukuqina kwezimoto: Ukukhiqizwa kwezimoto kukhulise inkomba yemikhiqizo yezimoto (105.3), yize intela kuma-EV aseShayina ibonakala njengosongo olusha.
Indlela Eya Phambili: Ukucaca Kwenqubomgomo Njengesici Esinqumayo
I-UNCTAD igcizelela ukuthi imiphumela ye-H2 incike ezinsikeni ezintathu:ukucaca kwenqubomgomo,ukwehla kwezomnotho, futhiukuzivumelanisa nezimo kochungechunge lokuhlinzekaI-WTO ibikezela ukukhula kuka-2025 ku-1.8%—cishe ingxenye yesilinganiso sangaphambi kobhubhane—okungenzeka ukuthi kuphinde kube khona2.7% ngo-2026uma ukungezwani kuncipha.
Izindawo ezibalulekile zokuqapha zekota yesi-3 kuya kweyesi-4 ka-2025:
Ukuqaliswa kwentela yase-US ngemuva kwezingxoxo zango-Agasti 1
I-PMI yaseShayina kanye nokubuyiselwa kwesidingo sabathengi
Intuthuko ezingxoxweni zokwandisa i-EU-Mercosur kanye ne-CPTPP
Isiphetho: Ukuzulazula ku-Tightrope Yenqubomgomo
Ukuhwebelana komhlaba wonke ngo-2025 kubonisa ukuqina phakathi kokuguquguquka. Ukwanda kwe-H1 $300 billion kufakazela ikhono lesistimu lokumunca ukushaqeka, kodwa izingozi ze-H2 zihlelekile, hhayi ngokujikeleza. Njengoba ukuhlukana kwezentengiselwano kushesha, amabhizinisi kumele abeke phambili ukubambisana kwesifunda, ukwenziwa kwedijithali kochungechunge lokuhlinzeka, kanye nokwehlukahluka kwezinsizakalo.
Ubuthakathaka obukhulu kakhulu abukhona ukwehlisa isidingo—ukungaqiniseki okuphazamisa ukutshalwa kwezimali. Ukucaca manje sekubaluleke kakhulu kunokuba amanani entela ebiza kakhulu.
Kwabenzi bezinqubomgomo, umyalelo ucacile: Yehlisa intela, thuthukisa izivumelwano zokuhweba, futhi ukhuthaze ukuzivumelanisa nezimo. Okunye - uhlelo lokuhweba oluqhekekile, olunezinqubomgomo - lungabiza umnotho womhlaba injini yalo eyinhloko yokukhula iminyaka ezayo.
Isikhathi sokuthunyelwe: Julayi-12-2025
